How many leads a month do you actually need?
Working backwards from a revenue target using median job value and a real close rate.
The arithmetic
Start with the revenue target, divide by median job value of about $13,400 to get jobs required, then divide by the close rate for the channel supplying them. A $2 million target is roughly 150 jobs. At a 60 percent organic close rate that is 250 enquiries a year, near 21 a month. At a 12 percent paid close rate, the same target needs 1,250 enquiries, or 104 a month.
Run it for your own numbers
Four steps, and use your own job value rather than the median if you know it.
Why the channel mix decides the number
The same revenue target needs five times the enquiry volume when the enquiries are cold. That is the whole reason mix matters more than lead price. A company at 21 organic enquiries a month and one at 104 paid enquiries a month can book identical revenue, but the second is running a call centre to do it and paying for every conversation.
Adjust for seasonality, not averages
A flat monthly target is a fiction in roofing. Demand concentrates around weather and the shoulder seasons, and a plan built on a twelfth of the annual number will be short in the busy months and idle in February. Work out the monthly figure, then shape it against your own two years of enquiry data before deciding anything.
Capacity is the other constraint
More leads than your crews can serve is not growth, it is a queue that turns into cancelled jobs and bad reviews. Before raising a lead target, check how many jobs a week your crews complete, how far out you are booked, and what happens to close rate when the earliest start date is six weeks away. Companies that fix capacity first often need fewer leads than they thought.
The number most companies actually need
Fewer than they assume, and better qualified. A page that publishes real price ranges lowers enquiry volume and raises close rate, which reduces the target while holding revenue flat. That trade, less volume for better fit, is the practical version of what a rebuild does, and it is set out on the pricing page.
Worked example, at three revenue targets
Same job value, same close rates, three ambitions.
At 60 percent organic, 125 enquiries a year, about 10 a month. At 12 percent paid, 625 enquiries, about 52 a month.
At 60 percent, 250 enquiries, about 21 a month. At 12 percent, 1,250 enquiries, about 104 a month.
At 60 percent, 622 enquiries, about 52 a month. At 12 percent, 3,108 enquiries, about 259 a month.
Why the paid column stops being possible
At 259 enquiries a month you are running a contact centre, and the arithmetic assumes lead supply exists at that volume in your market, which it usually does not at a price you would accept. This is the practical ceiling on paid-only growth in roofing: not budget, but the number of conversations a company can have before the close rate degrades further.
Two adjustments to make before trusting the number
First, replace the median job value with your own average, which may differ by thousands and changes everything downstream. Second, shape the monthly figure against your own two years of enquiry data rather than dividing by twelve, because a plan built on a flat month will be short in the season and idle in February. The target is a starting point for a conversation with your own numbers, not a forecast.
Related guides.
Organic and referral at 50 to 70 percent, cold paid at 8 to 15, shared platforms at 8 to 20, and why the spread is that wide.
$200 to $300 per shared lead with no exclusivity, against enquiries that arrive only to you.
Close rates of 50 to 70 percent against 8 to 15 percent, and what that does to cost per booked job.
Run the numbers on your market.
$2,500, and you see cost per booked job for every channel you use.